As November nears, the polls are looking rough for Texas Attorney General and GOP nominee Ken Paxton.
Despite the fact that he's running against ultra-woke twelve year-old Doppelgänger James Talarico, the Real Clear Politics average has Talarico close to two points ahead.
So what gives? Paxton has lots of big issues, to be sure, but so does Talarico. If anything, shouldn't this race be so closely deadlocked that it will be decided one way or another by literally a handful of votes?
Maybe so. But one big challenge for Paxton has been the fundraising gap and Talarico's massive financial advantage. And as the numbers bear out, big donors are just not shelling out enough for Paxton. Indeed, one of them– Leonard Leo– is completely MIA.
Leo was Paxton's biggest backer. Until he wasn't. And his exit from the Paxton universe has had a big, bad effect on campaign finances.
As of the end of June, Talarico had raised $31.6 million to Paxton's $9.3 million.
Since the beginning of 2025, Talarico has raised an aggregate of $72 million. Paxton has raised a total of $16.8 million.
Talarico finished June with $23.3 million cash on hand. According to Fox San Antonio, that was "more than triple" Paxton's treasury.
And according to recent fundraising emails, after the runoff, Paxton's campaign bank balance was down to $0.
For Texans steeped in GOP politics, it's a surprising situation, but one that boils down to this: Major GOP financial players remain on the sidelines, each of them waiting for another one to engage before they'll throw cash behind the Paxton effort.
Leo, a longtime backer of Paxton– indeed, one might even say the man responsible for Paxton's entire rise, remains on the sidelines, checkbook and wallet closed (though he is backing Susan Collins in Maine).
Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc also remain unengaged in the race, each reportedly waiting for the other to spend on Paxton's behalf, but both (and Leo's outfit) concerned about appearing to back a candidate viewed as controversial by the establishment and plenty of non-establishment figures, too. If Leo had put money into the race, it's possible SLF and MAGA Inc would have followed, but this far, none of the three is engaged.
Ted Cruz has spent to boost Paxton (he probably wants to show his strength in Texas, or at least convert Paxton backers into early supporters of his 2028 presidential campaign, which is reportedly gearing up in stealth mode).
There's a rumor Elon Musk might engage. But Elon's companies are already gearing up in Washington, D.C., for Democrats to take Congress. Dropping coin on Paxton could seriously rile the about-to-be-new-powers. It's not clear that the guy who has so much riding on politicians not hating him between Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink and his other ventures, is likely to make a major enemy of Democrats right now in this way.
So, the fundraising deficit persists. And so does the polling gap.
Now, had Paxton exercised more caution and avoided several of the manifold ethical messes that he has proactively bathed himself in, this situation would have been easily avoided, years out.
But it is ironic that Leo, in particular, never seemed to care about any of that up until this year. He backed Paxton when he was already accruing liabilities beyond the merely philosophical, it would appear because Paxton– flawed though he was– was delivering a lot of results that benefited Leo and his benefactors. Now, he's completely MIA. And if he won't step up, it makes it a lot harder for SLF or MAGA Inc to get there. Why should they take the political hit of bolstering Paxton when his own former best pal won't even buy him a cup of gas station coffee?
Truth be told, it would be better if Texas Republicans had recruited more wisely when looking at this Senate race. John Cornyn has long struck too many Texans as a milquetoast dud. Wesley Hunt wasn't impressive. And Paxton is Paxton.
But Texas is a state of over 30 million people. It's almost inconceivable that this is where we are, and yet, this is the situation.
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